It's an all out battle between the major players in Uttar Pradesh, which is essentially a three-cornered fight between Samajawadi Party-Congress combine, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the BSP. While on the one hand, incumbent Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav is hoping to retain power after fighting the internal battle within his own family, on the other, the BJP and the BSP are hoping that the electorate will give them a chance to rule the state this time around.
Following are some of the issues that will have an impact in the crucial state of UP -
Law and Order problem and corruption issues:
There are two issues that both BJP and BSP chief Mayawati have been attacking Akhilesh for and that is law and order situation and corruption issues under him in the last five years. They have been highlighting the Badaun sisters case and the communal clashes and well as the enormity of corruption by citing cases such as the massive wealth recovered during income tax raids on Noida chief engineer Yadav Singh which they have said indicated a nexus among politicians, bureaucrats and technocrats. Among other corruption issues, the case of minister in Akhilesh cabinet, Gayatri Prajapati, who was removed after the order of Allahabad High Court for a CBI inquiry but was later inducted, has hit the headlines.
Samajwadi Party family feud:
Despite the so-called 'Pari-wa ar' in the ruling Samajwadi Party, incumbent Akhilesh has continued to say that he has the blessings of his father Mulayam Singh Yadav and that the "entire family is one". He has also exuded extreme confidence (especially after being allotted the 'cycle' symbol by the Election Commission and tying up with the Congress) that they will win over 300 (of the 403) seats.
It cannot be denied that the war in SP has been milked by the UP CM to bolster his image of being a pro-poor and pro-development leader, one who was not afraid to take on his family head on in order to get rid of the 'goonda' and corrupt elements in his party. Thus, in rallies Akhilesh has been citing various development works undertaken by his government in the past five years. Will the very public spat between Mulayam create a dent in SP's vote share (of 29.15% in 2012 polls) or not will be interesting to watch.
Demonetisation and surgical strikes:
BJP president Amit Shah in an interview on a TV channel commented that upcoming Assembly elections in UP "would not be a referendum on demonetisation policy, but if the Opposition wanted to play it that way, then the BJP was game for it". However, the BJP really had no choice. Both for the BJP and the Opposition, demonetisation is an issue in the crucial elections.
While the saffron party has been harping on the demonetisation drive as a fight against corruption and black money, the Opposition has been driving home the point that thousands of labourers, artisans and weavers have lost their jobs in cities like Agra, Varanasi, Kanpur, Moradabad, Allahabad and Aligarh due to note ban. They are also saying that in rural areas farmers have found it tough to buy fertilizers and pesticides. However, most of the surveys on the note ban have shown that the move by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has got thumbs up but the implementation left a lot to be desired.
Another, issue that is dominating the polls in UP is surgical strikes. The BJP is hoping that PM Modi's decision to give the go-ahead to the Army to launch strikes at terror pads across LoC will reap them dividends.
PM Modi's personal popularity:
On January 02, at a mega rally, enthused by the huge turnout in Lucknow, PM Modi had urged people of UP to rise above caste considerations and vote for the BJP. Attacking rival parties, he had said – "They are saying 'Modi ko badlo' (change Modi), 'Modi ko hatao' (remove Modi) but Modi is saying change your notes, remove black money. People of UP have to decide if a party whose leaders are busy saving their money will be able to save UP. Or the party which is completely occupied in the family (infighting) will be able to save UP.”
Needless to say, with no CM candidate for the polls, the saffron party is banking on the personal popularity of PM Modi to help them come to power in the Hindi heartland after 14 years. A win in UP will surely help the party build momentum for 2019 General Elections.
Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh will be held from February 11 to March 8 in 7 phases and results will be declared on March 11.