Mumbai: Rating agency India Ratings and Research on Wednesday said the country's GDP may have grown at 7.3 percent in FY 2014-15 which is slightly lower than Centre's estimate of 7.4 percent.
"We forecast FY15 GDP (at FY12 prices) to be 7.3 percent as against the advance estimate of 7.4 percent by the Central Statistics Office (CSO)," the agency said in a report here on Wednesday.
The net exports, which is the difference between exports and imports in national income accounting, might have turned positive in the last quarter of FY15.
Although net exports for FY15 as a whole will still be negative, it will be lower than the advance estimate thereby contributing positively to the GDP growth, the report said.
The agency expects a 22.5 percent year-on-year decline in net exports for FY15 as against the CSO advance estimate of a decline of 19.5 percent.
It said the industrial sector is also likely to miss advance estimates.
"Although IIP (general) grew at its fastest pace in last three fiscals, we expect industrial sector growth to fall short of CSO?s advance estimates of 5.9 percent," the report said.
Ind-Ra expects industrial gross value-added (GVA) growth to come in at 5.8 percent in the fourth quarter of FY15 and for the full year at 5.4 percent.
Notwithstanding unseasonal rains in large parts of country in February and March 2015, agriculture may have grown at 1.1 percent in FY15.
The FY15 advance estimate has pegged private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) growth at 7.1 percent.
"If PFCE has to match advance estimates, it has to grow at 11.8 percent in the fourth quarter in FY15, which is a daunting task," the report said.
It said with decline in inflation, households' inflation expectations have also declined sharply and it should have resulted in higher consumption expenditure in the economy but consumers are still cautious and somewhat sceptical about the sustainability of trajectory of inflation decline.
"As a result, they are in a wait and watch mode and are deferring their spending and not ready to loosen their purse yet," the report stated.
The agency said the government expenditure in FY15 to grow at 9.6 percent and in the fourth quarter at 9.1 percent.
To achieve 10 percent growth in FY15, the government expenditure in the fourth quarter has to grow at 10.8 percent.
"This looks unlikely in view of the fiscal consolidation path followed by central and state governments," as per the report.
It also expects the current account to turn surplus in the fourth quarter of FY15 at USD 1.8 billion, 0.4 percent of GDP), giving comfort to balance of payment.
