Arun Chaubey
With the announcement that L K Advani is now its Prime Ministerial candidate, the BJP has put an end to the much discussed chapter of who would take over the mantle from A B Vajpayee. But the timing of this declaration has raised several questions when the party is fighting a very crucial electoral battle in Gujarat. Does it mean the BJP is so desperate to make Modi win or is so confident that it envisions the path to the nation’s apex post through this Assembly polls.
The political truth may vary, but the Gujarat assembly election is crucial for both the BJP as well as the Congress. The way both these national parties are fighting in ‘the laboratory of Hindutva’ shows they are treating it as a dress rehearsal of sorts for the general elections.
Let us try to ascertain the existing ground realities of Gujarat, where in 2002 assembly polls the BJP under the leadership of Narendra Modi had won the battle in the backdrop of the post-Godhra developments. Of the 182 seats, BJP had won 127 and Congress could win only 52 seats, while other parties including NCP, BSP, Communists, JDS and SP failed even to open their accounts, except JDU and Independents who won 2 seats each.
After five years, the state is witnessing a battle in which only two parties are the actual contenders, while others seem to be on the fringes. Prior to looking at the constituencies in two phases, let us try to see a few significant factors which are likely to affect the elections more than the clash of personalities in the fray.
In the given situation, one still can’t ignore Modi for his bi-annual Vibrant Gujarat Global Investor`s meet, which made the state emerge as the leader not only in the Indian sub-continent but also in the entire Asia. According to the RBI, 25% of the country’s total investment is coming in Gujarat. Perhaps, these facts were not able to withstand the brute realities of politics that Modi has resorted to play hard Hindutva card.
Chief Minister Narendra Modi, against whom Congress has fielded Union MoS for Petroleum Dinsha J Patel from Maninagar, appears to be unfazed as he is the master of the game which now has started. But the Congress, at some places looks defensive especially after the Election Commission’s notice to its party chief.
If we look at the first phase of election for 87 seats, the BJP in 2002 had won 54 seats, Congress had got 30, while JDU managed to win two seats. In the second phase, slated on December 16, the state would witness polling over 95 seats.
It may be noted that the seats falling in the first phase belong mainly to Kutch and Saurashtra, where if we consider the given facts, the Congress appears confident especially because of the dissidents in BJP. But the way Modi cites the pride of Gujaratis and tries to expose Congress’ soft-peddling over dealing with terrorists, the latter seems to be failing to retaliate with equal aggression.
The seats covering the second phase belong to mainly the urban Gujarat, where youth segment seems to be a deciding factor. In this part of the state, Congress tears into pieces the claims of Modi’s development. At one time, Gujarat was a world-renowned textile production centre in the 70s and 80s, but today most of its mills are a forgotten story. The farm sector is even worse, as in the last 20 years, the continuous and massive migration of farm labourers and marginal land holders has made agriculture no longer a viable livelihood option. This has given rise to massive rural unemployment, endemic indebtedness and food insecurity.
In the face of such a scenario, Gujarat’s phenomenal progress creates doubt as to where lies the reality. In terms of education and culture also, the distribution of centres of repute has been geographically uneven. Will the “Apnu Gujarat, Agavun Gujarator, our Gujarat, unique Gujarat,” of Narendra Modi materialise into reality or will his sweet water lake in the Cambay (Sujalam Sufalam) project remain a dream?
Modi’s survival in the party seems to hinge upon the TINA (there is no alternative) factor, as his rivals are either too old and infirm or perceived as too soft. And the BJP under his leadership is confident of a landslide victory with at least 150 seats, while the Congress, which avoided projecting any leader as its chief ministerial candidate, feels optimistic to return to power after a gap of 17 years.
But the BJP’s sudden proclamation to make Advani its Prime Minister in waiting seems to express that the Vajpayee’s “raj dharma” has become irrelevant at least in Gujarat election, and the triumphant Modi would prepare the edifice of the party for its new countenance over hard hindutva ground.
