Shashank Chouhan
India, Russia concluding a civilian nuclear agreement that is not restrictive like the 123 Deal perhaps best answers the question why India should not forget the Soviets. It is a pact that will go a long way in pushing Indian policy makers to guard Indo-Russian camaraderie in the emerging world order where power won’t stay with any one pole for long.
For this is a bond that has weathered many a storm and Manmohan Singh-Dmitry Medvedev’s signing of the nuclear deal has provided it with an unbreakable protective sheath- even if India-Russia ties were to sour in future, Russian nuclear reactors in India won’t run dry of fuel.
This is in sharp contrast to the much hyped India-US civil nuclear deal- the flagship of George W Bush era. In the absence of harsh internal laws like the American Atomic Energy Act & the draconian Hyde Act, Russian nuclear fuel supply to India, as also its enrichment by up to 20% and reprocessing rights, will not suffer at any cost, ever.
Not only is that a major high point, its smooth agreement vis-à-vis the nuclear deal becoming a sticking point between President Obama and PM Singh proves a valid point: all eggs shouldn’t be in the US basket alone.
Rightly then, India is moving fast in this area of cooperation with Russia and others. The deal will enable Atomstroyexport, the Soviet atomic monopoly, to build four nuclear reactors in Koodankulam, Tamil Nadu, which will begin producing power in 2010. That is quite a quick development considering the last word still remains to be written on the Indo-US nuclear accord and much, seemingly, seems to be depend on the US’ Non-proliferation plans for India; though Obama promises that the deal should be thorugh by next year.
The India-Russia deal has melted any frostiness that may have crept in when Vladimir Putin was in office and India moved closest to the former Soviet Cold War adversary. While an important nerve has been soothed for now, one important aspect that can put the ties on ventilator needs immediate attention- defence cooperation.
There is no doubt that collaboration in the field of arms and ammunitions forms the bedrock of India-Russia relations. From being the largest supplier of weapons to partnering in the production of BrahMos missile, Russia has provided crucial support to India in a hostile neighbourhood. But it has been replaced by Israel in recent times as India’s main arms supplier with its companies supplying 30% of India’s defence imports.
While cheerleaders on both sides hoped that a political handshake will finally help the ageing Admiral Gorshkov warship drop its anchor in the Arabian Sea, no final agreement between Manmohan and Medvedev on its price- Russians are demanding USD2.9 bn, nearly thrice the original refitting price of the ‘gift’- shows certain wounds remain to be healed.
Thankfully, the two sides realise the importance of defence cooperation and have adequately compensated for the Gorshkov no-show. Three key defence pacts have been signed that will see the joint development of a fifth generation multi-role transport aircraft. A 10-year cooperation pact has also been signed that will include all future defence deals that may amount to USD 5 bn, apart from expanding the arms market for joint venture projects of both countries. While constant crashes of MiGs and even of the newly acquired Sukhois forced India to look at other global alternatives (mainly American) for its ambitious 125 jet deal, Singh signed a USD1 bn deal for 80 Russian Mi-17 choppers.
India lending its ears to Lockheed and Boeing pitch is of concern to Russia as it is symbolic of the country’s definite drift towards the US. Russia has tried to create its own counter pole along with China, India and Brazil which comprise over half of the world’s population and will become the most important economies by 2020. Russia PM Yevgeny Primakov dreamed of forming a more exclusive grouping to effectively blunt the US’ ‘hyperpower’ status back in 1998: a Russia-India-China group, the RIC which materialized in 2005.
RICs voice should have increased tremendously after the US invaded Afghanistan, but that didn’t happen as most of the world acquiesced in the War on Terror. Even now, when the US is beginning to at least formulate an exit policy, the RIC haven’t been at the forefront of providing solutions for their own backyard. India will undoubtedly be the most affected party if the condition is to deteriorate in Afghanistan and it should use this grouping in its favour.
Towards this end, Medvedev and Singh issued a joint statement saying, “that the resurgence of the Al Qaeda and Taliban in Afghanistan threatens the progress made over the last few years".
"In this regard, they (India and Russia) condemn the terrorist attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul on Oct 8, 2009," according to the joint declaration. Medvedev also asked perpetrators of 26/11 to be brought to justice. Singh on his part supported Russia for its role in the Caucasus. A revealing, though seemingly insignificant, part of the statement was that both countries will consult each other about policy on Afghanistan. This should be seen in the backdrop of Obama and Hu declaring that their countries will act for peace in South Asia. China will not side with India on Pakistan, which has a serious and competitive stake in the Afghan situation. Partnership with Russia would, thus, be the way forward for India.
While the above power games adapt to the ever changing global scenario that includes Russia bettering ties with China and the US, one aspect that can solidify the bilateral relationship for good is trade and economy. Russia may be India’s thickest of friends, but it is surprising that the latter’s trade ties are better with China: Sino-India trade touched USD 58 bn in 2008 while Indo-Russian trade remains a meager USD 5 bn. Singh and Medvedev, thus, decided on a target of USD 20 bn worth of trade by 2020.
India’s EXIM Bank has extended a credit line worth USD100mn to the Russian bank. The areas of energy, information technology and communication and pharmaceuticals have been decided as focus areas for economic cooperation. Both countries recognized that they needed to move beyond trade in rough diamond and tea to high-end technology and space partnership.
How important are Russian ties to India was proved by the fact that Manmohan Singh urgently followed up his Washington trip with the Russian rendezvous. He also said that ties with any country will not affect courtship with Russia, which more than met this eagerness by declaring its support for a seat for India in UN Security Council. This relationship and its impending offshoots in BRIC, RIC, Shanghai Cooperation Council etc need to be nurtured. For in the multi-polar world of tomorrow, holding hands with old friends is going to be a part of expanding and preserving spheres of influence.
