For hard-pressed drug makers, more used to attacks than applause, the H1N1 flu crisis is a chance to earn political capital by delivering billions of doses of vaccine across the planet.
Recent investment has put companies in far better shape to meet the challenge compared to five years ago, when a single factory closure in northwest England left the world worryingly short of seasonal flu shots.
This time around big flu vaccine makers like Sanofi-Aventis, GlaxoSmithKline and Novartis look set to book extra sales, although constraints on both capacity and pricing will cap the financial upside.
Until now, the main investor focus has been on stockpiling of antiviral drugs to fight the new strain of H1N1 flu, with Roche and Glaxo -- makers of Tamiflu and Relenza respectively -- the two obvious winners.
But that could be about to change as World Health Organization experts meet on May 14 to consider a switch from seasonal to pandemic vaccine production, with companies under intense pressure to show they are good citizens.
Making a vaccine for the new strain, widely known as swine flu, will mean stopping most production of seasonal shots. But because some companies are now well advanced in making next season`s regular vaccine, there is some room to meet both needs.
Companies are not divulging their production schedules but officials at two manufacturers said they were hopeful they would be finished with much of the production needed for the next northern hemisphere flu season by the time of any switch.
Although the H1N1 flu strain seems mild at present, health officials are worried it might return in a more virulent form in the northern hemisphere winter.
Dealing with such an uncertain threat involves a careful balance by health authorities and companies, since making a new vaccine will take four to six months.
The WHO estimates manufacturers have the capacity to make up to 900 million shots annually against seasonal flu, which kills between 250,000 and 500,000 people a year.
Kieny estimates that translates into pandemic capacity of at least 1-2 billion doses, because a simple pandemic vaccine contains only one ingredient, while the seasonal one has three.
Even so, there will not be enough vaccine for the world`s population of more than 6.5 billion.
