Indonesia will now have to wait till June to host US President Barack Obama. The US leader was earlier scheduled to visit Indonesia on March 23. The country holds a great significance for Obama, as it is the place where he spent four years of his child life.
Albeit now scheduled for June, yet the trip will bring into limelight Obama`s multicultural upbringing, his early exposure to Islam and his lasting family ties with Indonesia.
In an exclusive interview with Kamna Arora of Zeenews.com, Pankaj Kumar Jha, a strategic analyst, discusses the objective of Obama’s trip to Indonesia and its effect on the Muslim world.
Pankaj Kumar Jha is Associate Fellow at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.
Kamna: What is the objective of Barack Obama’s Indonesia trip?
Jha: This trip of Barack Obama is to rekindle his early childhood memories as well as reformat the relationship with Indonesia. This visit is being regarded as ‘pulang kampong’, which in Bahasa (language) Indonesia means ‘returning home’ for Obama, who would be highly nostalgic. Indonesia, a rather nascent democracy, is seeking investments and military assistance from the United States. Obama’s visit to Indonesia would be aimed at gaining leverages with its partner country by offering few incentives and concessions. This includes training facilities to the Indonesian Army’s young officers, and also education and scholarships to young Indonesian professionals and students.
Indonesia would be seeking US assistance with regard to rehabilitation and reconstruction within its Aceh autonomous province, as well as comprehensive partnership agreement on a number of issues. Indonesia would welcome any initiative by Obama to undo the damage done in the civil society with regard to (George W) Bush administration`s Global War on Terror (GWOT) initiative. Obama might launch the peaceful and harmonious world initiative in Indonesia, so as to gain the goodwill of the Muslim nations in the region.
He might also underline the administrative compulsions and outline US strategy with regard to Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan and Iraq. This would be particularly aimed at placating the Muslims masses. He would find it very hard to control the pockets of anguish about the US policy with regard to Israel, which had been found wanting at many instances in West Asia. This visit to Indonesia is aimed at rebuilding partnership between the two nations. The US needs Indonesia, the fourth largest populous nation, for securing its interests in Southeast Asia as well as for creating a safety net for securing its military supplies vital for its troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Kamna: The administration of Barack Obama is expected to lay strategic emphasis on the bilateral relationship with Indonesia in order to counterbalance China`s growing dominance in Southeast Asia. Comment.
Jha: China has been poaching in the US` area of influence, and thus reworking its relationship with Indonesia is a part of its agenda and assumes topmost priority. On one hand, China has been offering investment and trade incentives to Indonesia, while on the other it has been getting exploration rights in few of the oil blocks in Indonesia through competitive bidding. China had also signed a defence technology cooperation agreement with Indonesia in 2005, followed by Defence Cooperation Agreement in 2007.
Furthermore, Beijing has also offered technology transfer for development of aircraft and transport vehicles. But owing to reliability problems and limited offers made by China with regard to training, the defence cooperation has not taken off in a big way. Indonesia has also shown keenness to purchase Russian Kilo class submarines and Sukhoi fighter aircraft, owing to arms embargo by the US in the past.
China wants to control the Malacca Straits and also the South China Sea. For that, it needs to win the support of Indonesia, even though it has contentious maritime boundary around Natuna islands. This would be an important journey for Obama to mend fences with the democratic but estranged Indonesia. How long Obama stays in Indonesia would be another important development because the last time when Bush visited the country, he stayed at Hawaii overnight rather than staying at the presidential palace in Jakarta. It is possible that Obama might meet the clerics and liberal Islamic leaders in Indonesia, so as to create a positive constituency about the US policies in Asia, including West Asia.
Also, it would be prudent for Obama to carefully calibrate its policy with regard to Southeast Asia. Indonesia, already, is clamouring for regaining its leadership role in Southeast Asia and the US’ support would act as a booster dose for the nascent democracy. As already, Indonesia is showing economic growth in the range of five to six percent and is reviewing its energy policy. This visit to Indonesia would review the US administration’s revised policy with regard to countering terrorism and growing Islamic radicalism. The US might offer defence equipment and military aid to Indonesia to win back the influential country in the region.
This visit would be aimed at seeking a long-term strategy for containing China, though publicly it would not be articulated in any print or television media.
Kamna: Can Obama’s visit help his embattled Indonesian counterpart, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, gain prestige in domestic politics?
Jha: Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is already facing political crisis and public scrutiny over the bailout package of USD 716 million offered to Bank Century, which has been mired in controversy.
In Parliament, the two coalition partners, Golkar and United Development Party, switched sides to vote in favour of the investigation into the alleged financial bungling. This has jeopardised Yodhoyono’s plans for infrastructure development, fighting corruption and strengthening democracy in the country. Obama’s trip might or might not become a shot in the arm for the Indonesian President, but it depends to a large extent on the public acceptance of Obama. Notably, the Israeli attacks in Lebanon and thereafter the killing of democratically-elected Hamas leaders have portrayed the US stance as negative in the region. Obama might have to do a tight ropewalk to establish himself as a liberal president with high regards for democracy, human rights and free-market economy.
Already, the domestic opposition to the 10-year-old Obama statue in central park in Jakarta is growing, which is seen as a political gimmick by opposition parties. The US package in terms of investment, employment and education would create goodwill for Yudhoyono as well as Obama.
Kamna: Will Obama use his Indonesia trip to boost ties with the Muslim world?
Jha: Yes. This is a well-planned move so as to garner brownie points through liberal thoughts and strong denouncement of the flawed Global War on Terror strategy espoused by his predecessor George Bush. In fact, it is strongly expected that he will make a speech very similar to that he made in Cairo in June 2009.
Also, Indonesia being a moderate Muslim society, he would make pronouncement about few policy measures to uplift the status of the Muslim society in the world and clear any misgivings about Muslims. This visit might as well create bridges between the US and the Muslim majority nations of Asia. Indonesia is also important for the US’ strategy as it is a founder member of D-8, an organisation of eight developing Muslim majority countries, and the Organisation of Islamic countries (OIC).
A number of political commentators and analysts would be scrutinising this visit to fathom whether (US Secretary of State) Hillary Clinton’s statement made last July that the US is back in Southeast Asia, has some substance or it is just another US policy rhetoric. Obama might also use this visit to gain support of Muslim majority countries of the region against Iran’s nuclear programme and would outline the US policy with regard to North Korea.
Kamna: How can the US and Indonesia help each other in counter-terrorism?
Jha: The major problem between the US and Indonesia with regard to counter-terrorism is that of perception and counter measures. Though Indonesia has been very successful in countering terrorism through its anti-terror unit, popularly known as Detachment 88, trained by former US intelligence and police personnel, but the country believes in de-radicalisation and addressing the roots causes. However, the US had strongly advocated strong measures against listed terrorist groups under the Bush administration in the past.
Indonesia has been seeking military exercises and training for its military personnel. But the ‘Leahy Act’ prohibits the US to train any military personnel involved in human rights abuse. The US might dilute this stance by providing young military personnel with necessary training in counter-terror measures and combat, subject to the fact that they had not been involved in any atrocities or human rights violations during the East Timor crisis or either in Papua or Aceh for that matter.
Also, with the killing of Noordin Top and now very recently Dulmatin, it is believed that the US assistance might help in decimating the rest of the cadres of Jemaah Islamiyah, the major terrorist group in Indonesia. But Obama might also like to discuss the issue of communal tensions between Christians and Muslims in few provinces of Indonesia.
