By: Indrajeet Rai
Sino-Indian relations are caught into a competition-cooperation matrix. Both elements of competition and cooperation are present in the environment governing the bilateral relations between the two countries. Due to the presence of these contradictory elements, Sino-Indian relations have been described as a unity of opposites.
Will India and China be able to reconcile these opposites into one and build a long-lasting partnership? Will they be able to overcome the trust deficit that has been generated over the years? Can the upcoming visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao give a new trajectory to Indo-China relations? Unfortunately, the answer seems to lie more on the negative side of the scale.
India-China relations: A cooperative enterprise
There are several compelling reasons for India and China to foster a cooperative bilateral relationship. Both are fast growing but energy deficient economies and are making a scramble for energy resources all around the world. This is leading to a spiraling of the prices of the energy resources.
In order to evade over-competing in the energy field, ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL) and the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) signed an agreement to place joint bidding for energy projects during the China visit of the then Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar in January 2006.
India had been a leading advocate of an Asian energy grid to avoid over competition for the scarce energy resources. However, despite all the talk of India-China working together for their energy security, there had been only one joint bidding by OVL and CPNC, when both tied up to buy 37 percent stake of PetroCanada in Syria. This suggests that there is a limit to joint bidding these two entities can make, however. All experiences upto now suggest that China had been a reluctant partner and prefers to work alone to ensure its energy security.
The threat of Islamic fundamentalism is another challenge which both the countries are facing and can cooperate to tackle it.
Next, both countries espouse the cause of multi-polarity in the international arena. The world being more or less unipolar with the US being the single pole, China and India have a good reason to work in unison for a multi-polar world.
Russia-China-India strategic triangle
It was Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov who first mooted the idea of this strategic triangle during his visit to India in 1999. But this strategic triangle has failed to materialise for many obvious reasons.
Though Russia and China have perceived strategic threats from the US, the same can not be said about India. While Russia is concerned with the eastward expansion of the NATO, China feels that US is engaged in strategic encirclement of it just as did in the case of erstwhile USSR. It is because of these mutualities of interests that Russia and China have formed the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and are striving to give it a military orientation.
Whereas India is concerned, it has no obvious gains to make by being a party to this strategic triangle and hence is busy building a strategic partnership with the US. It needs US support to get a permanent membership in the United Nations Security Council. It has signed a historic Indo-US nuke deal to meet its ever growing energy demands.
In the near future, there seems to be no possibility of the Russia-China-India strategic triangle being a reality.
China: A poor man’s US in South Asia
What US has been doing to China and with respect to Indo-Pak relations, China too has been trying to imitate it vis-à-vis its Indo-Pak relations. It has been behaving like a poor man’s US in South Asia.
Despite all the efforts of China to tie-down India in its neighborhood, Sino-Indian relations are continuously improving in comparison to their frozen years of 1960s and 1970s. From a meager USD 2.9 billion in 2000, Sino-India trade has shoot upto USD 13 billion and has generated optimism that it can exceed USD 25 billion by 2010.
The reluctance of China to settle its border disputes with India is the major irritant in India-China relations. No matter how much bilateral trade flourishes between India and China, as long as the border dispute remains intractable, geo-strategic positions continue the way they are, Sino-Indian relations will remain more competitive than cooperative.
