Arun Chaubey
Since independence the Congress continued in power in Assam till 1978, Janata Party tried to break this monopoly, but it could not manage beyond two years, and Congress came back to power once again and continued to rule till 1985. However, activists from the Assam movement came to power under the AGP in 1985, and since then Congress and AGP have alternately been in power.
Despite insurgency, Assam has witnessed one of the biggest youth movements under the Assom Gana Parishad. It has also the distinction of having the youngest Chief Minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta in 1985. The state endowed with natural beauty has several issues which need immediate attention if it has to retain its glory.
Among several issues which have gathered even national attention is the series of terror blasts in Guwahati and other districts. Besides, the problem of illegal migrants from Bangladesh is reported to have created fear of altering the demography here, and in wake of it the repeated incidents of the ruthless killing of Bihari labourers and outside settlers have further aggravated the matters.
In 2005, Assam Governor Lt Gen (Retd) Ajay Singh made a statement that as about 6000 illegal Bangladeshis are entering the state daily, then it would be 1, 80,000 in a month and 21.6 lakh annually. If we believe his statement, then by 2015, the state is expected to have 21.6 million illegal Bangladeshis outnumbering the entire population of the north-east excluding Assam, and the whole region will be reduced to a minority in 20 years time.
As per the government estimate, there are 20 million illegal Bangladeshi immigrants in India, while in the nation there are over 100 million genuine Muslims. Of the 26 million people in Assam, a little over one-fourth of the state`s population is of Bangladeshi immigrants, and surprisingly the state alone has over one-third Bangladeshi immigrants in the country.
Although Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi rejected the Governor`s claim, the fact is the illegal immigrants have been infiltrating into the state unabated over the years.
The All Assam Students Union (ASSU) had launched a bloody campaign against Bangladeshis, and in 1985 they reached an agreement with the then state government, but that accord is yet to be implemented fully.
Besides, the tension between Assamese and Bengalis is one of the reasons leading to foundation of the ULFA in 1979. It has also attacked Hindi-speaking migrant workers, as they feel that their original right over the land has been encroached upon by these outside settlers.
The Assam United Democratic Front (AUDF), which started its political journey only in the last Assembly elections, has already created a dedicated cadre that the parties like NCP were more than willing to have an alliance with it.
The AUDF led by Badruddin Ajmal is a rallying point in the state, where the Assembly poll results surprised everyone. It won 10 seats, lost two with a narrow margin, and on 12 seats it was on second position losing for only 2500-3000 votes. The party had good fight over 24 seats, while on 11 seats it was on third position.
The AUDF, which has given crushing blow to Congress, is determined to do the same in Parliamentary polls. With a near 31% of Assam`s population as Muslims, the AUDF is confident of its good performance.
According to AUDF chief, security is a major reason why Muslims of East Bengali descent traditionally voted for the Congress, but he signals the desire to reject that dependency. He is of the opinion that the biggest problem that the Muslims of Assam are facing is the problem of being called a Bangladeshi.
Talking about the plight of poor Muslim populace, the AUDF opines that the biggest river Brahmaputra overflows along its banks in many places and damages the adjoining areas every year. In last 60 years it has damaged mostly Muslim areas, where people run away in boats leaving behind their valuables. Government doesn`t issue them domicile certificates and ultimately they are declared Bangladeshis.
The state has witnessed series of terror blasts and for the Tarun Gogoi government it is the cause of sleepless nights. Tackling terror and bringing back the economy on tracks is going to be the main issues for the Congress, which is highlighting "concrete steps" taken by it at the Centre.
The formation of the NSG hubs in four metros and the formation of the National Investigation Agency are facts which would face acid test here also. However, the AGP-BJP coalition is determined to expose the state government’s soft-peddling on the terror elements.
In the last Parliament elections, of the 14 seats the Asom Gana Parishad and BJP both won two seats each, while Congress had won 9 seats, and an Independent candidate wrested the last seat.
Taking no chances, the erstwhile partners decided to reach an understanding with an intention to win maximum seats. According to the AGP-BJP pact, the saffron party is
fielding eight candidates in Guwahati, Nagaon, Mangaldoi, Silchar, Karimganj, Jorhat, Dhubri and Diphu, while the regional party is contesting on six seats of Dibrugarh, Lakhimpur, Tezpur, Kaliabor, Barpeta and Kokrajhar.
The Congress decision to field controversial M K Subba, whose Indian citizenship has been mired in controversy, is also going to be a poll issue at least in Tezpur. Subba`s citizenship kicked off a row, as the CBI told the Supreme Court that his birth certificate and other details submitted before Election Commission were fake. The SC had sought a response from Subba but the matter is still pending.
Subba, a three-time MP, is the leader whom Congress can not afford to avoid due to his "winnability" but charges against him are such that they would certainly reverberate in the polls.
