Ritesh K Srivastava
The Congress, which ruled Andhra Pradesh till last month, is now a divided party, especially in Seemandhra following the mass exodus of most of its MPs, former ministers, MLAs and workers who were upset over the decision to bifurcate the state.
No one would disagree that the ruling Congress has suffered more in Andhra Pradesh than in any other state for clearing the formation of a separate state of Telangana - an issue over which its strongman and the former chief minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy had quit the party and floated his own political outfit. Another prominent defector is D Purandeswari, a Union Minister, who too dumped the Congress to embrace the BJP.
With its house in complete disarray and many of its known faces deserting the party, the Congress is expected to suffer major electoral reverses in the state, which has 42 Lok Sabha seats. The state, which once played a pivotal role in Congress`s victory in both the 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha elections, is set to witness a multi-cornered contest as all top players are trying to extract maximum advantage of the uncertain political situation.
It is aptly clear that after the Telangana episode, the Congress is on the backfoot and fast losing the grip over its state leaders. The Congress is likely to bleed further in Seemandhra as some of its powerful faces like Kavuri Sambasiva Rao, MP Rayapati Sambasiva Rao, former ministers JC Diwakar Reddy, D L Ravindra Reddy and the likes are all set to cross over to the TDP.
The situation is so pathetic for the ruling party that it could not find suitable candidates to be fielded for the March 30 urban civic body polls in Seemandhra. In coastal town Eluru, only nine Congress nominees are in fray for 50 divisions in the local municipal corporation. In the remaining divisions, not a single candidate has filed nomination on behalf of the Congress.
The scene is no different in other districts in Seemandhra. In the four districts that comprise Rayalaseema region, the Congress is a divided house, though in four to five districts in coastal Andhra some of its leaders are still with the party. Barring N Raghuveera Reddy, the newly-appointed chief of Andhra Pradesh Congress Committee, the party is left with not a single worthwhile leader in Anantapuram district. It`s lone MP from Anantapuram, Venkatrami Reddy has joined the YSR Congress, while most of the MLAs have joined the TDP.
Interestingly, former minister S Sailajanath from the district, who has been appointed vice-president of the newly-formed Jai Samaikyaandhra Party, floated by N Kirankumar Reddy, is mulling join the TDP. In the neighbouring Chittoor district, all leaders, including N Kiran Kumar Reddy, have deserted the Congress.
Union Minister Kotla Suryaprakash Reddy is left to hold the Congress fort all alone in Kurnool district after two former ministers and almost all MLAs joined the TDP. The lone Congress bigwig in Kadapa, D L Ravindra Reddy`s entry into TDP is now just a formality as he has been taking an active part in its activities for the past few days.
Guntur is the only district, where the party does not have to worry too much as one Union Minister and three state ministers are staying with the party, though one MP and some other legislators left it. Guntur MP Rayapati Sambasiva Rao did not join the Jai Samaikyaandhra Party as expected, but is inclined towards the TDP. He is said to be waiting for an assurance from the TDP leadership on fielding him from the Narasaraopet Lok Sabha seat.
Another key player, KC Rao-led Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) has refused to merge his party with Congress on the grounds that statehood to Telangana has come with a lot of conditions. Interestingly, before the Parliament`s nod to the Telangana Bill, KCR had promised to merge his party with Congress. He backed off later, saying 90% of TRS workers are against it.
As per the recent surveys, the TRS is expected to get 42% votes in the Assembly elections in Telangana. In a multi corner contest, KCR`s party can win two-third of the total seats in the Assembly and can easily form the government. The party hopes to win at least 6 seats in the Lok Sabha.
Districts like Nizamabad, Adilabad, Karimnagar and Warangal are considered to be TRS strongholds and the party also has a strong base in Medak and Mahbubnagar districts. KCR has already tied up with the MIM led by Owaisis, who appear confident that their party will win the Hyderabad Lok Sabha seat and 7 assembly seats. The CPI and CPM are also hoping that they can win at least 3-4 seats. These parties are also backing the TRS. Probably afraid of losing his grip over the Telangana region, KCR has preferred to be the new state`s first chief minister rather than heading an obscure ministry of state at the Centre.
Another reason for the steep decline of the Congress is the discontent brewing in the people across the state. Over 1.2 million people are displaced in the state due to various projects. There is an acute water crisis and a massive unemployment problem in the state.
The biggest gainer in the state has undoubtedly been the TDP led by Chandrababu Naidu, which is fast gaining the lost ground in Seemandhra. The party hopes to win some seats in Telangana, in view of its almost-final deal with the BJP. Telugu cinema star Pavan Kalyan has also fielded his candidates in some parts of Telangana. More than 8-9 political parties will be contesting in the elections this time, making it one of the most keenly watched polls in the recent history.
The YSR Congress led by YS Jaganmohan Reddy will also be contesting in Telangana. Even though the YSRCP is unlikely to make any impact because of its strident anti-Telangana stand, it can win a handful of assembly seats on Seemandhra-Telangana border. Jagan Reddy`s biggest strength is the enormous mass support for his family mainly due to his charismatic late father YSR.
BJP also hopes to win few seats in Seemandhra due to high anti-Congress sentiments, the Modi wave, and in the Telangana region, mainly in lieu of its support to its statehood.
Whatever one says, ruling Congress is the biggest loser in the whole political drama here, and if the poll predictions are to be believed, the party is expected to get only 6-12 seats out of the 42 Lok Sabha constituencies. The party has paid a huge price for its decision to bifurcate AP and with KCR`s refusal to join hands with it, it is set to lose big time in Telangana as well.
