Ritesh K Srivastava
With the Congress party’s prospects appearing dim, BJP’s mission 272 looking an uphill task and the Left unlikely to get anywhere close to 25 seats in upcoming Lok Sabha polls, regional parties appear set to play a pivotal role in deciding the next prime minister.
The Congress may be hoping for a revival under Rahul and the BJP confident of the reach of the `Modi wave`, the fact of the matter is that both the national biggies appear as minnows in front of regional satraps in large swathes of the country.
Tamil Nadu (39 seats), West Bengal (42), UP (80), Andhra Pradesh (25) and Odisha (21) are among the other few states that hold the key to government formation at the Centre.
Barring the Samajwadi Party, most of the other regional parties have been part of NDA in the past and may be open to joining hands with the BJP again but without Narendra Modi at the helm. In the event of BJP-led NDA failing to reach the 272-seat mark, AIADMK chief and Tamil Nadu CM Jayalalithaa’s chances of becoming the PM in the final lap of the bigger game of the 2014 polls will be the brightest.
In the past two years as Chief Minister, Jayalalithaa or Amma, as she popularly known, has strengthened her grip on the voters in Tamil Nadu by fulfilling most of her election promises, through her pro-poor approach and welfare-oriented governance.
In the past two years, Amma has virtually silenced her arch-nemesis M Karunanidhi. Its another matter that Karunanidhi`s plate is full anyways as he tries to steer the DMK to safety amid a bitter succession war between his sons MK Alagiri and MK Stalin. Moreover, the voters of Tamil Nadu have still not forgotten the selfish political working style (his promotion of his clan and tainted close loyalists) of the ageing DMK patriarch.
Though it is not possible for Amma to make a clean sweep in the crucial Lok Sabha polls, AIADMK’s chances of winning a sizeable number of seats can’t also be ruled out. In view of the widening rift between the DMK and Congress, Amma would want to extract the maximum advantage of the situation and probably that’s why the chorus for `Tamil Nadu`s first prime minister` or a ‘Sari clad PM from South’ is getting shriller and louder with every passing day.
Adept in anticipating the moves of the opposition, Amma has also declared that she will face the electorate alone in 2014.
Though ‘Amma as PM’ is still a far-fetched idea but there still can be two likely situations under which Jayalalithaa could get to country’s most coveted post. The first being her possible emergence as a consensus candidate if the BJP, despite emerging as the largest party, fails to win enough seats to form the government.
If the BJP is forced to depend on regional parties who don`t want to see Modi as the Prime Minister, Jayalalithaa could well be seen as an acceptable candidate for the post.
The second factor that could possibly work in favour of Amma is the political strength and bargaining power that she will gain is her AIADMK emerges as the largest party in the `Third Front` that is being mooted by Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav and the Left. However, considering Mulayam`s long-cherished dream of becoming the PM, it is highly unlikely that he would step aside paving way for Jayalalithaa just to keep the Congress and the BJP out of power.
Those who are not comfortable with the idea of a regional party leader becoming the PM will run out of options if AIADMK surprises everyone with 30 plus seats. If it so happens, Amma can easily command support from other regional allies if a working coalition can be achieved with careful planning and execution.
Besides, Tamil Nadu has had a history of one party making a clean sweep in the polls and in view of the multi-cornered contests in bigger states like UP, Bihar, WB etc where seats will be divided between two-three main parties, Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK may emerge as one the biggest gainers post May 16.
Beside Jayalalithaa’s leadership qualities, her secular credentials will make her acceptable as a unanimous candidate in any non-Congress, non-BJP formation that may emerge in the eventuality of a hung house.
She has close friends across the political divide and this will help her form a durable coalition and also help in keeping it intact. The AIADMK chief is known to have the political acumen to turn foes into lasting friends.
By Indian standards for suitability to be in politics, Jayalalithaa is relatively young at 65. She has an unassailable majority in the TN Assembly and a firm grip over her party, which means she would face no internal squabbles and dissent.
Her tough and no nonsense approach towards governance, excellent communication skills, thorough knowledge of national and international issues makes her a formidable contender for the PM’s post.
