D N Singh
Things do not augur well for the ruling alliance in Orissa. The schism in the alliance between the Biju Janta Dal (BJD) and the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) has nearly come out in the open with each party daring the other to go it alone in the coming general election.
The bone of contention is not merely seat sharing but the question of the vote-gaining ability of the BJP, which, according to some analysts, has taken a nosedive in the aftermath of Kandhamal unrest.
As a result, the insecurity in the BJD rank has translated itself into words through the speeches of some senior BJD leaders. The BJP has reciprocated in kind by retaliating through its second rung leaders.
In Orissa it has been a rag to riches story for the saffron squad. From mere nine MLAs in the 90s, the party`s MLA count rose to 36 in the post alliance phase under Naveen`s leadership. But today the BJP`s image has morphed into that of a brigade which has seriously dented the image of Naveen Patnaik as a secular leader.
In the post Kandhamal phase the BJP has been seen to be in a moribund state. This might result in it being a liability for Naveen Patnaik than a healthy running mate. The BJP was blamed as one of the factors behind the month long carnage in Kandhamal, and during the last session of the Orissa Assembly, the BJP instead of playing the role of a partner to bail out BJD from the
quagmire of tirades, it went in favour of a critical overreach to demand an undue adjournment of the session thus rubbing salt in Naveen`s wounds.
The man viewed to be next to Naveen in the power structure, Pyari Mohan Mohapatra, a sitting
Rajya Sabha MP from the BJD, recently threw a challenge, saying unequivocally that BJD would be happy to go it alone in the next general election if need be. This was a hint the BJP obviously did not take kindly to, and the state leadership retaliated through its second rung cadres.
Indications from the BJD camp are that, this time it can not retain the last ratio in seat sharing. In
the last Assembly polls it was 63 - 84 ratio for BJP and BJD respectively but, this time, there are ample signals from the Naveen camp that it would curtail BJP`s quota by at least ten seats. But, BJP`s woes in this regard can not be BJP`s alone. In the case of any electoral divorce, Naveen`s BJD too will bear the brunt as division of alliance votes might erode his confidence, and vote bank too.
Despite the great measure of goodwill Naveen enjoys for his transparent image, built more on show than on substance, he would face anti-incumbency in his bid for a third term. That is where the main opposition party, the Congress, despite its fractured state, would benefit at least by default.
Yet, the factors that are in favour of Naveen are; his projected persona as a moderniser who has the doggedness to combat corruption, control over the bureaucracy, and the ability to increase the efficiency of the administrative apparatus. The BJP of course is not unaware of these points going in favour of Naveen and that should induce in them the wisdom not to get off the tiger`s back less than 100 days before the polls.
